Swing Trading Markets Analysis: Risk ON or OFF – Next Week Will Tell Us #wk37

Here is the swing trading markets analysis for this week #37 where we saw the QQQ and SPY break through the 21-ema with SPY showing better support at the 21-ema.

Last week’s swing trading markets analysis we saw market gap ups QQQ, SPY and IBIT rocket higher following the decisive U.S. election result and rate cut confirmation from the Fed.

SPY Base Breakout – S&P 500

The S&P 500 stock market index tracks the stock performance of 500 of the largest companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. It includes approximately 80% of the total market capitalization of public companies in the United States.

This Week: the S&P 500 Fell by 2.36%

Thoughts: This week SPY fell through the 21-ema but found support. Looking for an upside reversal next week for the trend to continue. SPY could fall to the 50-day and reverse from there as well.

RSP – Equal Weight S&P 500

The Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF is designed to provide investors with exposure to the performance of the S&P 500 Index while employing an equal-weighting strategy. Unlike traditional market-capitalization-weighted ETFs, RSP allocates the same weight to each of the 500 constituent companies, which can enhance diversification and reduce concentration risk in large-cap stocks. This approach often leads to different performance characteristics compared to standard S&P 500 ETFs, particularly in varying market conditions. Investors typically seek RSP for its potential to capitalize on smaller companies within the index and to achieve more balanced exposure across sectors.

This Week: the S&P 500 Equal Weight fell by 2.12%

Thoughts: RSP fell through the 21-ema but found support.

QQQ – Nasdaq 100

The Nasdaq 100 is a stock market index made up of 101 equity securities issued by 100 of the largest non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange. It is a modified capitalization-weighted index, meaning the stocks’ weights in the index are based on their market capitalizations with certain rules capping the influence of the largest components. So price fluctuations in companies like Alphabet, Apple, Tesla, Nvidia directly affect the Nasdaq 100 day to day.

This Week: the Nasdaq 100 fell by 3.65%

Thoughts: QQQ showing more weakness, closing well below the 21-ema. Nvidia earnings next week may lift the QQQ.

IWO – iShares Russell 2000 Growth ETF

The iShares Russell 2000 Growth ETF (IWO) tracks the Russell 2000 Growth Index, which is made up of small-cap companies with strong growth characteristics, such as above-average earnings growth and higher price-to-book ratios. IWO offers a more aggressive play on the small-cap space, focusing on businesses that are expected to grow rapidly, often with higher volatility but potentially greater upside. In contrast, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) tracks the broader Russell 2000 Index, which includes both growth and value stocks, making it more diversified but less concentrated on the growth sector.

This Week: the Russell 2000 Growth fell by 6.08%

Thoughts: Growth stocks did not find support at the 21-ema, remained above the base level.

Leading up to this point the Russell 2000 Growth has been choppy.

XIU – iShares S&P/TSX 60 Index ETF

XIU is a liquid ETF that tracks the TSX 60 Index, which consists of the top 60 companies in Canada and has a large-cap focus.

This Week: the Canadian S&P/TSX rose by 0.34%

Thoughts: Canadian market pullback but remains well above the prior base and 10-ema.

GLD – SPDR Gold Shares ETF

GLD is a relatively cost efficient and secure way to access the gold market. SPDR Gold Shares is the largest physically backed gold exchange traded fund in the world.

This Week: Gold fell by 2.45%

Thoughts: gold is well below the 50-day, next support levels are 231 the 222 areas.

Gold formed a long base since mid-2021 until early 2024. Gold ran up in 2024 and has since broken out of a short base.

USO – United States Oil Fund ETF

USO’s investment objective is for the daily changes, in percentage terms, of its shares’ net asset value (NAV) to reflect the daily changes, in percentage terms, of the spot price of light sweet crude oil delivered to Cushing, Oklahoma, as measured by the daily changes in the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract. Specifically, USO seeks for the average daily percentage change in USO’s net asset value, for any period of 30 successive valuation days, to be within plus/minus 10% of the average daily percentage change in the price of the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract over the same period.

This week: oil fell by 2.05%

Thoughts: Sellers are still in control – downtrend.

IBIT – iShares Bitcoin Trust

Bitcoin is a digital asset that is created and transmitted through the operations of the peer-to-peer Bitcoin Network, a decentralized network of computers that operates on cryptographic protocols. The Bitcoin Network allows people to exchange tokens of value, Bitcoins, which are recorded on a public transaction ledger known as a Blockchain.

The iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF seeks to reflect generally the performance of the price of bitcoin.

This week: IBIT rose by 11.71%

Next week: IBIT still strong. Extended.

TLT – iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF

The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF seeks to track the investment results of an index composed of U.S. Treasury bonds with remaining maturities greater than twenty years. The TLT portfolio’s effective duration is 16.5 years. So, if interest rates fall by 1.0%, TLT’s price could rise by 16.5%.

This Week: TLT fell by 2.33%

Next Week: sellers in control, downtrend

Swing Trading Market Summary – Risk Neutral Market