Swing Trading Markets Analysis: Risk ON – QQQ SPY IBIT Market Gap Ups Post Election and Fed Decision #wk36

Here is the swing trading markets analysis for this week #36 where we saw market gap ups QQQ, SPY and IBIT rocket higher following the decisive U.S. election result and rate cut confirmation from the Fed.

Last week’s swing trading markets analysis we saw QQQ and SPY drop below their 21-emas. All of the sectors are pulling back in advance of the the U.S. election on Nov 5th, and the inverted yield curve seems to be of concern.

SPY Base Breakout – S&P 500

The S&P 500 stock market index tracks the stock performance of 500 of the largest companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. It includes approximately 80% of the total market capitalization of public companies in the United States.

This Week: the S&P 500 rose by 4.73%

Next week: SPY gapped up over multiple days, resuming the uptrend

RSP – Equal Weight S&P 500

The Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF is designed to provide investors with exposure to the performance of the S&P 500 Index while employing an equal-weighting strategy. Unlike traditional market-capitalization-weighted ETFs, RSP allocates the same weight to each of the 500 constituent companies, which can enhance diversification and reduce concentration risk in large-cap stocks. This approach often leads to different performance characteristics compared to standard S&P 500 ETFs, particularly in varying market conditions. Investors typically seek RSP for its potential to capitalize on smaller companies within the index and to achieve more balanced exposure across sectors.

This Week: the S&P 500 Equal Weight rose by 4.25%

Next week: RSP gap up and strong close to the week, momentum has spread throughout the market

QQQ – Nasdaq 100

The Nasdaq 100 is a stock market index made up of 101 equity securities issued by 100 of the largest non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange. It is a modified capitalization-weighted index, meaning the stocks’ weights in the index are based on their market capitalizations with certain rules capping the influence of the largest components. So price fluctuations in companies like Alphabet, Apple, Tesla, Nvidia directly affect the Nasdaq 100 day to day.

This Week: the Nasdaq 100 rose 5.62%

Next week: QQQ strong moves with gap ups, back in the uptrend.

IWO – iShares Russell 2000 Growth ETF

The iShares Russell 2000 Growth ETF (IWO) tracks the Russell 2000 Growth Index, which is made up of small-cap companies with strong growth characteristics, such as above-average earnings growth and higher price-to-book ratios. IWO offers a more aggressive play on the small-cap space, focusing on businesses that are expected to grow rapidly, often with higher volatility but potentially greater upside. In contrast, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) tracks the broader Russell 2000 Index, which includes both growth and value stocks, making it more diversified but less concentrated on the growth sector.

This Week: the Russell 2000 Growth rose by 9.6%

Next week: Russell 2000 Growth had an even more powerful move up than SPY and QQQ – expect continued move higher next week

Leading up to this point the Russell 2000 Growth has been choppy.

XIU – iShares S&P/TSX 60 Index ETF

XIU is a liquid ETF that tracks the TSX 60 Index, which consists of the top 60 companies in Canada and has a large-cap focus.

This Week: the Canadian S&P/TSX rose by 2.09%

Next week: after a brief pullback to the 21-ema, looks like XIU will move higher next week

GLD – SPDR Gold Shares ETF

GLD is a relatively cost efficient and secure way to access the gold market. SPDR Gold Shares is the largest physically backed gold exchange traded fund in the world.

This Week: Gold fell by 2.1%

Next week: gold fell through the 21-ema, but seems to have found support just under

Gold formed a long base since mid-2021 until early 2024. Gold ran up in 2024 and has since broken out of a short base.

USO – United States Oil Fund ETF

USO’s investment objective is for the daily changes, in percentage terms, of its shares’ net asset value (NAV) to reflect the daily changes, in percentage terms, of the spot price of light sweet crude oil delivered to Cushing, Oklahoma, as measured by the daily changes in the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract. Specifically, USO seeks for the average daily percentage change in USO’s net asset value, for any period of 30 successive valuation days, to be within plus/minus 10% of the average daily percentage change in the price of the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract over the same period.

This week: oil fell by 1%

Next week: Sellers are still in control. Looks like a consolidation pattern is forming, buyable potentially around $76

IBIT – iShares Bitcoin Trust

Bitcoin is a digital asset that is created and transmitted through the operations of the peer-to-peer Bitcoin Network, a decentralized network of computers that operates on cryptographic protocols. The Bitcoin Network allows people to exchange tokens of value, Bitcoins, which are recorded on a public transaction ledger known as a Blockchain.

The iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF seeks to reflect generally the performance of the price of bitcoin.

This week: IBIT rose by 12.03%

Next week: IBIT breakout, could be a good end of year for Bitcoin

TLT – iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF

The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF seeks to track the investment results of an index composed of U.S. Treasury bonds with remaining maturities greater than twenty years. The TLT portfolio’s effective duration is 16.5 years. So, if interest rates fall by 1.0%, TLT’s price could rise by 16.5%.

This Week: TLT rose by 0.22%

Next Week: sellers in control, downtrend

Swing Trading Market Summary – Risk ON Market