Swing Trading Markets Analysis: USO Breakout – Technology and Financials Setting UP for Breakouts #wk31

Here is the swing trading markets analysis for this week #31 where there was a USO breakout due to the Iran/Israel conflict. SPY/QQQ are holding at highs. The technology and financials sectors are setting up for breakouts.

Last week’s swing trading markets analysis which saw USO bottom may have formed as other markets have moved higher with the QQQ, IWM, IBIT sitting at key pivot levels. XIU and GLD continue to show strength.

SPY Base Breakout – S&P 500

The S&P 500 stock market index tracks the stock performance of 500 of the largest companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. It includes approximately 80% of the total market capitalization of public companies in the United States.

This Week: the S&P 500 rose by 0.44%

Last Week: the S&P 500 rose by 0.39%

Next week: all MAs stacked the right way and trending up, edging higher and remaining above the pivot. Intra week SPY dipped but recovered by end of week. Expect to move higher next week.

QQQ – Nasdaq 100

The Nasdaq 100 is a stock market index made up of 101 equity securities issued by 100 of the largest non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange. It is a modified capitalization-weighted index, meaning the stocks’ weights in the index are based on their market capitalizations with certain rules capping the influence of the largest components. So price fluctuations in companies like Alphabet, Apple, Tesla, Nvidia directly affect the Nasdaq 100 day to day.

This Week: the Nasdaq 100 rose by 0.33%

Last Week: the Nasdaq 100 rose by 0.79%

Next week: 50-day moving average is up now and although QQQ dipped intra-week, ended the week above the pivot. Expect QQQ to move higher next week.

IWM – iShares Russell 2000 ETF

The Russell 2000 Index is a small-cap U.S. stock market index that makes up the smallest 2,000 stocks in the Russell 3000 Index. The index is a widely quoted measure of the overall performance of small-cap to mid-cap company shares. It is commonly considered an indicator of the U.S. economy due to its focus on small-cap companies in the U.S. market.

This Week: the Russell 2000 fell by 0.15%

Last Week: the Russell 2000 fell by 1.03%

Next week: looks like we are in a short term downtrend, 50-day MA is trending down. We are probably going lower to the 50-day MA / the long term trendline.

Unlike the Nasdaq bullish run, the Russell 2000 has traded within a range since April 2022. Key previous resistance points to keep an eye on are around around the 211 and 227 and 242 marks. A lot of the money in the market has been driving the large caps higher over the years leaving the Russell 2000 to underperform.

XIU – iShares S&P/TSX 60 Index ETF

XIU is a liquid ETF that tracks the TSX 60 Index, which consists of the top 60 companies in Canada and has a large-cap focus.

This Week: the Canadian S&P/TSX rose by 0.94%

Last Week: the Canadian S&P/TSX rose by 0.19%

Next week: continued march higher under high volume. Expect more strength next week.

Looking at a slightly longer time horizon, we can see that the TSX has been trading sideways since April 2022 and has broken through the $35 level and remains trading above this previous resistance level.

GLD – SPDR Gold Shares ETF

GLD is a relatively cost efficient and secure way to access the gold market. SPDR Gold Shares is the largest physically backed gold exchange traded fund in the world.

This Week: Gold rose by 0.42%

Last Week: Gold rose by 0.83%

Next week: gold traded sideways this week and pulled back to the 10-ema, expect push off the 10-ema next week.

Gold formed a long base since mid-2021 until early 2024. Gold ran up in 2024 and has since broken out of a short base.

USO – United States Oil Fund ETF

USO’s investment objective is for the daily changes, in percentage terms, of its shares’ net asset value (NAV) to reflect the daily changes, in percentage terms, of the spot price of light sweet crude oil delivered to Cushing, Oklahoma, as measured by the daily changes in the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract. Specifically, USO seeks for the average daily percentage change in USO’s net asset value, for any period of 30 successive valuation days, to be within plus/minus 10% of the average daily percentage change in the price of the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract over the same period.

This week: oil rose by 9.21%. USO breakout.

Last Week: oil fell by 3.69%

Next week: USO jumped up this week on the Iran/Israel news. USO may move higher on continued Iran/Israel news or fall sharply if the conflict subsides.

Looking at the longer term view, Oil as of Aug-Sept has been in a downtrend

IBIT – iShares Bitcoin Trust

Bitcoin is a digital asset that is created and transmitted through the operations of the peer-to-peer Bitcoin Network, a decentralized network of computers that operates on cryptographic protocols. The Bitcoin Network allows people to exchange tokens of value, Bitcoins, which are recorded on a public transaction ledger known as a Blockchain.

The iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF seeks to reflect generally the performance of the price of bitcoin.

This week: IBIT fell by 2.46%

Last Week: IBIT rose by 3.72%

Next week: IBIT has fallen below the pivot, but still making higher lows. Expect move higher next week.

TLT – iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF

The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF seeks to track the investment results of an index composed of U.S. Treasury bonds with remaining maturities greater than twenty years. The TLT portfolio’s effective duration is 16.5 years. So, if interest rates fall by 1.0%, TLT’s price could rise by 16.5%.

This Week: TLT fell by 3.13%

Last Week: TLT rose by 0.071%

Next Week: Expect further decline

Swing Trading Market Summary