Swing Trading Markets Analysis: USO Bottom – XIU and GLD strength continues #wk30

Here is the swing trading markets analysis for this week #30 where USO bottom may have formed as other markets have moved higher with the QQQ, IWM, IBIT sitting at key pivot levels. XIU and GLD continue to show strength.

Last week’s swing trading markets analysis which saw SPY breakout after the fed confirmed a 0.50% rate cut. The QQQ and IWM moved higher as well but remained below breakout levels after running into resistance. Bitcoin showed signs of changing to an uptrend.

SPY Base Breakout – S&P 500

The S&P 500 stock market index tracks the stock performance of 500 of the largest companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. It includes approximately 80% of the total market capitalization of public companies in the United States.

This Week: the S&P 500 rose by 0.39%

Last Week: the S&P 500 rose by 1.16%

Next week: all MAs stacked the right way and trending up, edging higher and remaining above the pivot. Slight pause under lower volume. Expect to move higher next week

QQQ – Nasdaq 100

The Nasdaq 100 is a stock market index made up of 101 equity securities issued by 100 of the largest non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange. It is a modified capitalization-weighted index, meaning the stocks’ weights in the index are based on their market capitalizations with certain rules capping the influence of the largest components. So price fluctuations in companies like Alphabet, Apple, Tesla, Nvidia directly affect the Nasdaq 100 day to day.

This Week: the Nasdaq 100 rose by 0.79%

Last Week: the Nasdaq 100 rose by 1.95%

Next week: 50-day moving average is trending flat, lower volume pullback to key pivot level – expectation is to trend lower, hope for push higher

IWM – iShares Russell 2000 ETF

The Russell 2000 Index is a small-cap U.S. stock market index that makes up the smallest 2,000 stocks in the Russell 3000 Index. The index is a widely quoted measure of the overall performance of small-cap to mid-cap company shares. It is commonly considered an indicator of the U.S. economy due to its focus on small-cap companies in the U.S. market.

This Week: the Russell 2000 fell by 1.03%

Last Week: the Russell 2000 rose by 1.82%

Next week: flat 50-day ma, weakness but holding above key pivot, expect tightening at this level to form higher low and push higher

Unlike the Nasdaq bullish run, the Russell 2000 has traded within a range since April 2022. Key previous resistance points to keep an eye on are around around the 211 and 227 and 242 marks. A lot of the money in the market has been driving the large caps higher over the years leaving the Russell 2000 to underperform.

XIU – iShares S&P/TSX 60 Index ETF

XIU is a liquid ETF that tracks the TSX 60 Index, which consists of the top 60 companies in Canada and has a large-cap focus.

This Week: the Canadian S&P/TSX rose by 0.19%

Last Week: the Canadian S&P/TSX rose by 0.89%

Next week: continued move higher, extended from the 21-ema so could see XIU trend sideways

Looking at a slightly longer time horizon, we can see that the TSX has been trading sideways since April 2022 and has broken through the $35 level and remains trading above this previous resistance level.

GLD – SPDR Gold Shares ETF

GLD is a relatively cost efficient and secure way to access the gold market. SPDR Gold Shares is the largest physically backed gold exchange traded fund in the world.

This Week: Gold rose by 0.83%

Last Week: Gold rose by 1.44%

Next week: gold has had a strong move the last 2 weeks and is extended from the 21-ema, so I expect sideways trading

Gold formed a long base since mid-2021 until early 2024. Gold ran up in 2024 and has since broken out of a short base.

USO – United States Oil Fund ETF

USO’s investment objective is for the daily changes, in percentage terms, of its shares’ net asset value (NAV) to reflect the daily changes, in percentage terms, of the spot price of light sweet crude oil delivered to Cushing, Oklahoma, as measured by the daily changes in the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract. Specifically, USO seeks for the average daily percentage change in USO’s net asset value, for any period of 30 successive valuation days, to be within plus/minus 10% of the average daily percentage change in the price of the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract over the same period.

This week: oil fell by 3.69%

Last Week: oil rose by 3.23%

Next week: USO bottom may have formed if this recent upside reversal becomes a higher low, will look for USO to move up to the MAs and re-test the low

Looking at the longer term view, Oil as of Aug-Sept has been in a downtrend

IBIT – iShares Bitcoin Trust

Bitcoin is a digital asset that is created and transmitted through the operations of the peer-to-peer Bitcoin Network, a decentralized network of computers that operates on cryptographic protocols. The Bitcoin Network allows people to exchange tokens of value, Bitcoins, which are recorded on a public transaction ledger known as a Blockchain.

The iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF seeks to reflect generally the performance of the price of bitcoin.

This week: IBIT rose by 3.72%

Last Week: IBIT rose by 7.51%

Next week: IBIT remains well above the pivot level, although had a weak close on Friday was up 3.72% for the week. Expect it to re-test the moving averages and could be another buy opportunity. Currently at a key level.

TLT – iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF

The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF seeks to track the investment results of an index composed of U.S. Treasury bonds with remaining maturities greater than twenty years. The TLT portfolio’s effective duration is 16.5 years. So, if interest rates fall by 1.0%, TLT’s price could rise by 16.5%.

This Week: TLT rose by 0.071%

Last Week: TLT fell by 1.7%

Next Week: TLT may have formed a bottom having just re-tested the previous low, expect TLT to compress against the MA and pop above

Swing Trading Market Summary