Market Analysis for week ending March 8th

Swing Trading Markets Analysis – Markets Pop on Friday – Financials Relative Strength #wk52

Here is the swing trading markets analysis for this week #52 where we saw Financials Relative Strength

Last week’s swing trading markets analysis where we saw the stock market drop as concerns about tariffs on input costs and higher interest rates.

SPY – S&P 500

The S&P 500 stock market index tracks the stock performance of 500 of the largest companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. It includes approximately 80% of the total market capitalization of public companies in the United States.

SPY - S&P 500 swing trading chart

This Week: the S&P 500 fell 1.3%

Thoughts: edned the week on a bullish bar with good close, expect consolidation under EMAs

RSP – Equal Weight S&P 500

The Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF is designed to provide investors with exposure to the performance of the S&P 500 Index while employing an equal-weighting strategy. Unlike traditional market-capitalization-weighted ETFs, RSP allocates the same weight to each of the 500 constituent companies, which can enhance diversification and reduce concentration risk in large-cap stocks. This approach often leads to different performance characteristics compared to standard S&P 500 ETFs, particularly in varying market conditions. Investors typically seek RSP for its potential to capitalize on smaller companies within the index and to achieve more balanced exposure across sectors.

RSP - Equal Weight S&P 500 swing trading chart

This Week: the S&P 500 Equal Weight fell by 0.11%

Thoughts: bullish bar and close, expect consolidation under EMAs

QQQ – Nasdaq 100

The Nasdaq 100 is a stock market index made up of 101 equity securities issued by 100 of the largest non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange. It is a modified capitalization-weighted index, meaning the stocks’ weights in the index are based on their market capitalizations with certain rules capping the influence of the largest components. So price fluctuations in companies like Alphabet, Apple, Tesla, Nvidia directly affect the Nasdaq 100 day to day.

QQQ - Nasdaq 100 swing trading

This Week: the Nasdaq 100 fell by 3.74%

Thoughts: bullish bar to close the week, still well below the EMAs

IWO – iShares Russell 2000 Growth ETF

The iShares Russell 2000 Growth ETF (IWO) tracks the Russell 2000 Growth Index, which is made up of small-cap companies with strong growth characteristics, such as above-average earnings growth and higher price-to-book ratios. IWO offers a more aggressive play on the small-cap space, focusing on businesses that are expected to grow rapidly, often with higher volatility but potentially greater upside. In contrast, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) tracks the broader Russell 2000 Index, which includes both growth and value stocks, making it more diversified but less concentrated on the growth sector.

IWO - iShares Russell 2000 Growth ETF swing trading

This Week: the Russell 2000 Growth fell by 2.53%

Thoughts: bullish bar and close, well below 200d

XIU – iShares S&P/TSX 60 Index ETF

XIU is a liquid ETF that tracks the TSX 60 Index, which consists of the top 60 companies in Canada and has a large-cap focus.

XIU - iShares S&P/TSX 60 Index ETF swing trading

This Week: the Canadian S&P/TSX up by 0.72%

Thoughts: very bullish bar and positive week for Canadian market

GLD – SPDR Gold Shares ETF

GLD is a relatively cost efficient and secure way to access the gold market. SPDR Gold Shares is the largest physically backed gold exchange traded fund in the world.

GLD - SPDR Gold Shares ETF swing trading chart

This Week: Gold up 0.24%

Thoughts: looks like its tightening against the 10 ema

USO – United States Oil Fund ETF

USO’s investment objective is for the daily changes, in percentage terms, of its shares’ net asset value (NAV) to reflect the daily changes, in percentage terms, of the spot price of light sweet crude oil delivered to Cushing, Oklahoma, as measured by the daily changes in the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract. Specifically, USO seeks for the average daily percentage change in USO’s net asset value, for any period of 30 successive valuation days, to be within plus/minus 10% of the average daily percentage change in the price of the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract over the same period.

USO - United States Oil Fund ETF swing trading chart

This week: oil fell by 0.65%

Thoughts: looks like lower highs and lower lows

IBIT – iShares Bitcoin Trust

Bitcoin is a digital asset that is created and transmitted through the operations of the peer-to-peer Bitcoin Network, a decentralized network of computers that operates on cryptographic protocols. The Bitcoin Network allows people to exchange tokens of value, Bitcoins, which are recorded on a public transaction ledger known as a Blockchain.

The iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF seeks to reflect generally the performance of the price of bitcoin.

IBIT - iShares Bitcoin Trust swing trading

This week: IBIT fell by 11.64%

Thoughts: support but in the middle of nowhere

TLT – iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF

The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF seeks to track the investment results of an index composed of U.S. Treasury bonds with remaining maturities greater than twenty years. The TLT portfolio’s effective duration is 16.5 years. So, if interest rates fall by 1.0%, TLT’s price could rise by 16.5%.

TLT - iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF swing trading

This Week: TLT rose by 3.48%

Thoughts: long term rates falling

Swing Trading Market Summary

MarketNear TermYTD
S&P 500 (SPY)Neutral+1.38%
S&P Equal Weight (RSP)Neutral+2.82%
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)Neutral-0.61%
Russell 2000 Growth (IWO)Bearish-3.83%
TSX 60 (XIU)Bullish+2.99%
SPDR Gold (GLD)Neutral+8.73%
United States Oil (USO)Bearish-0.44%
Bitcoin (IBIT)Neutral-9.71%
Treasury Bond 20 Year (TLT)Bullish+5.86%

Swing Trading Sector Analysis

Consumer Discretionary (XLY) – downtrend

Consumer Discretionary (XLY) swing trading chart

Energy (XLE) – downtrend (potential short term rally)

Energy (XLE) swing trading chart

Utilities (XLU) – uptrend (basing up RHS)

Utilities  (XLU) swing trading chart

Technology (XLK) – downtrend

Technology (XLK) swing trading chart

Materials (XLB)– downtrend

Materials  (XLB) swing trading chart

Consumer Staples (XLP) – uptrend (basing up RHS)

Consumer Staples (XLP) swing trading chart

Industrials (XLI) – downtrend

Industrials (XLI) swing trading chart

Communication Services (XLC) – basing

Communication Services (XLC) swing trading chart

Healthcare (XLV) – uptrend (basing up RHS)

Healthcare (XLV) swing trading chart

Financials (XLF) – breakout

Financials (XLF) swing trading chart

Real Estate (XLRE) – uptrend (basing up RHS)

Real Estate (XLRE) swing trading chart

Semiconductor (SMH) – downtrend

Semiconductor (SMH) swing trading chart

Aerospace & Defense (ITA) – basing (up RHS)

Aerospace & Defense (ITA) swing trading chart

Swing Trading Sector Summary – Where to Look for Swing Trade Setups

Explore

  • Consumer Staples (XLP) – uptrend (basing up RHS)
  • Healthcare (XLV) – uptrend (basing up RHS)
  • Real Estate (XLRE) – uptrend (basing up RHS)
  • Financials (XLF) – breakout

Wait

  • Energy (XLE) – downtrend (potential short term rally)
  • Utilities (XLU) – uptrend (basing up RHS)
  • Communication Services (XLC) – basing
  • Aerospace & Defense (ITA) – basing (up RHS)

Avoid

  • Consumer Discretionary (XLY) – downtrend
  • Technology (XLK) – downtrend
  • Materials (XLB)– downtrend
  • Industrials (XLI) – downtrend
  • Semiconductor (SMH) – downtrend

That’s it for this week.

– Trade well and be well !


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