This is a walkthrough of precedence for 2025 tariff Impacts on the Stock Market while swing trading in 2018 when Trump (during his first administration) introduced tariffs and their impact on the SPY and QQQ.
Swing Trading – Precedence for 2025 U.S. Tariff Impacts on the Stock Market (SPY and QQQ)
SPY was in a strong uptrend. There was an 11% drop over the first 17 calendar days. It took 100 calendar days for the tariffs impact to work through the market before the market could turn higher.
QQQ was also in a strong uptrend but suffered a similar drop (-12%) over the first three weeks. It took 99 calendar days to start to see a contraction in volatility and recovery.
Swing Trading Precedence for 2025 U.S. Tariff Impacts on the Stock Market
- After tariffs are announced, markets may rise/gap down then pause before dropping below the moving averages – this could be a time to short the index
- Expect an initial drop – maybe 10% (although this may depend on the magnitude of the tariffs)
- SPY and QQQ will likely be equally impacted
- There will be very high volatility as countries announce and impose retaliatory tariffs
- There may be rallies up to 5 days in length
- Watch for contraction in volatility to signal its time to look for stock setting up
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