Swing Trading Markets Analysis: Markets Holding Rebounds Bitcoin Flagging #wk25

Here is the swing trading markets analysis for this week #25 ending August 23th 2024 which saw markets holding rebounds with strong closes to the trading week and gains across the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), S&P 500 (SPY), Russell 2000 (IWM) holding above key moving averages.

Last week’s swing trading markets analysis  saw markets rebound with strong moves to close the trading week and gains across the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), S&P 500 (SPY), Russell 2000 (IWM), Gold etc. recovering more ground and moving above key moving averages.

SPY – S&P 500

The S&P 500 stock market index tracks the stock performance of 500 of the largest companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. It includes approximately 80% of the total market capitalization of public companies in the United States.

This Week: the S&P 500 rose by 1.34%

Last Week: the S&P 500 rose by 3.76%

Moving Averages: the S&P 500 10-day ema and 21-day ema are both above the 50-day moving average as of the close of week.

Overall / Current Trend: overall up, in the short term the S&P 500 close the week on an upside reversal, at the top of its DCR

Next week: I expect the S&P 500 to edge higher as we are only just above the long term trend line and the moving averages are just now stacked the right way

QQQ – Nasdaq 100

The Nasdaq 100 is a stock market index made up of 101 equity securities issued by 100 of the largest non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange. It is a modified capitalization-weighted index, meaning the stocks’ weights in the index are based on their market capitalizations with certain rules capping the influence of the largest components. So price fluctuations in companies like Alphabet, Apple, Tesla, Nvidia directly affect the Nasdaq 100 day to day.

This Week: the Nasdaq 100 rose by 1.04%

Last Week: the Nasdaq 100 rose by 5.26%

Moving Averages: the Nasdaq 100 is above its 50-day, 10-day ema and 21-day ema. The 10-day ema is above the the 21-day ema, and both are trending up toward the 50-day.

Overall / Current Trend: overall up, the QQQ has moved well above the longer term trend line

Next week: I expect the QQQ to trade sideways given the weak close at the end of week

IXF – Nasdaq 100 Financial

The Nasdaq Financial-100 is a stock market index operated by Nasdaq consisting of companies that are listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange, that are in the financial services industry, including banking, insurance, mortgages and securities trading.

This Week: the Nasdaq Financials rose by 2.42%

Last Week: the Nasdaq Financials rose by 3.59%

Moving Averages: the Nasdaq Financials 10-day ema and 21-day ema both remain above the 50-day, with the 10-day above the 21-day

Overall / Current Trend: overall up, strong close even higher above the previous base pivot

Next week: I expect the financials to trade higher given Friday’s strong DCR and since it is clear above the base pivot

IWM – iShares Russell 2000 ETF

The Russell 2000 Index is a small-cap U.S. stock market index that makes up the smallest 2,000 stocks in the Russell 3000 Index. The index is a widely quoted measure of the overall performance of small-cap to mid-cap company shares. It is commonly considered an indicator of the U.S. economy due to its focus on small-cap companies in the U.S. market.

This Week: the Russell 2000 rose by 3.44%

Last Week: the Russell 2000 rose by 2.95%

Moving Averages: the Russell is above all key moving averages, its 10-day ema has moved above its 21-day ema

Overall / Current Trend: the Russell 2000 remains in a long term (although shallower) uptrend

Next week: I expect the Russell 2000 to trade higher given it has re-cleared the 220 level and moving averages are now stacked the right way

Unlike the Nasdaq bullish run, the Russell 2000 has traded within a range since April 2022. Key previous resistance points to keep an eye on are around around the 211 and 227 and 242 marks. A lot of the money in the market has been driving the large caps higher over the years leaving the Russell 2000 to underperform. In the bigger picture the Russell 2000 has re-cleared the $220 level.

XIU – iShares S&P/TSX 60 Index ETF

XIU is a liquid ETF that tracks the TSX 60 Index, which consists of the top 60 companies in Canada and has a large-cap focus.

This Week: the Canadian S&P/TSX rose by 0.68%

Last Week: the Canadian S&P/TSX rose by 3.30%

Moving Averages: the Canadian S&P/TSX remains above all key moving averages, with the 10-day ema above the 21-day ema above the 50-day

Overall / Current Trend: in a long term uptrend since October 2023, the Canadian market has moved to near new highs

Next week: I expect the Canadian market to trade sideways given the recent move up under lower volume

Looking at a slightly longer time horizon, we can see that the TSX has been trading sideways since April 2022 and has broken through the high / resistance level at $33.91 and remains trading above this previous resistance level.

GLD – SPDR Gold Shares ETF

GLD is a relatively cost efficient and secure way to access the gold market. SPDR Gold Shares is the largest physically backed gold exchange traded fund in the world.

Gold formed a long base since mid-2021 until early 2024. Gold ran up in 2024 and has since been forming another base.

This Week: Gold rose by 0.81%

Last Week: Gold rose by 2.91%

Moving Averages: Gold remains above all key moving averages with the 10-day ema above the 21-day ema above the 50-day

Overall / Current Trend: Gold has been in an overall up trend since 2024 and has cleared the previous base pivot

Next week: I expect gold to continue to trade higher following clearing the base pivot. Also recently as GLD dipped below the base pivot a few times it formed a double bottom

USO – United States Oil Fund ETF

USO’s investment objective is for the daily changes, in percentage terms, of its shares’ net asset value (NAV) to reflect the daily changes, in percentage terms, of the spot price of light sweet crude oil delivered to Cushing, Oklahoma, as measured by the daily changes in the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract. Specifically, USO seeks for the average daily percentage change in USO’s net asset value, for any period of 30 successive valuation days, to be within plus/minus 10% of the average daily percentage change in the price of the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract over the same period.

Looking at the longer term view, Oil is trading in a range and has formed higher lows and lower highs since mid 2023.

This week: oil fell by 0.94%

Last Week: oil rose by 1.15%

Moving Averages: Oil is above its 10-day ema, but below its 21-day ema and 50-day

Overall / Current Trend: the long term trend of Oil is higher lows and lower highs. Recently oil has formed a double bottom perhaps the last shakeout needed to break through the resistance level.

Next week: I expect oil to trade around its 21-day ema given its higher lows and lower highs

GBTC – Grayscale Bitcoin Trust

Bitcoin is a digital asset that is created and transmitted through the operations of the peer-to-peer Bitcoin Network, a decentralized network of computers that operates on cryptographic protocols. The Bitcoin Network allows people to exchange tokens of value, Bitcoins, which are recorded on a public transaction ledger known as a Blockchain.

The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust is one of the first securities solely and passively invested in Bitcoin (“BTC”) that enables investors to gain exposure to BTC in the form of a security while avoiding the challenges of buying, storing, and safekeeping BTC, directly.

Bitcoin is in a long term uptrend which became extended during the March to April 2024 period however has since reverted back to the overall trendline, and fallen through support.

This week: Bitcoin rose by 8.32%

Last Week: Bitcoin rose by 0.27%

Moving Averages: Bitcoin has moved above the 10-day ema, 21-day ema, 200-day, but remains below its 50-day and the 10-day and 21-day remain below the 50-day and are trending flatter

Overall / Current Trend: overall long term trend up, in a basing period making lower highs and lower lows

Next week: I expect Bitcoin to trade sideways around the $48 support level given the strong close last week

TLT – iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF

The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF seeks to track the investment results of an index composed of U.S. Treasury bonds with remaining maturities greater than twenty years. The TLT portfolio’s effective duration is 16.5 years. So, if interest rates fall by 1.0%, TLT’s price could rise by 16.5%.

This Week: TLT rose by 1.00%

Last Week: TLT fell by 1.47%

Moving Averages: TLT remains above its key moving averages with the 10-day ema well above the 21-day ema

Overall / Current Trend: the longer term view is that TLT is in an uptrend as shown by rising bottoms, TLT has moved higher on the continued anticipation that rate cuts will materialize later this calendar year.  This week Jerome Powell said “the time has come” to begin cutting its key interest rate from its 23-year high.

Next Week: I expect TLT to trade sideways given the divergence between the 10-day/21-day and the 5-day

Swing Trading Market Summary – Markets Holding Rebounds