Swing Trading Markets Analysis – Week#8 (ending April 26th) Markets Trade Sideways

Swing Trading Market Summary

Here is the swing trading markets analysis for this week of April 26th 2024. Most of the markets traded sideways. Gold and Oil are still in an overall up trend. Last week (week 7) most key markets pulled back, following a significant run up.

SPY – S&P 500

The S&P 500 stock market index tracks the stock performance of 500 of the largest companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. It includes approximately 80% of the total market capitalization of public companies in the United States.

This week the S&P 500 climbed by 2.07% to close the trading week under average volume. SPY has moved closer to the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, however remained slightly below them. The S&P 500 trend still now moving sideways and not yet declining further to the 200-day moving average.

QQQ – Nasdaq 100

The Nasdaq 100 is a stock market index made up of 101 equity securities issued by 100 of the largest non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange. It is a modified capitalization-weighted index, meaning the stocks’ weights in the index are based on their market capitalizations with certain rules capping the influence of the largest components. So price fluctuations in companies like Alphabet, Apple, Tesla, Nvidia directly affect the Nasdaq 100 day to day.

By the end of the week the Nasdaq 100 ended up by 3.28%. The Nasdaq 100 remains below the 20-day and 50-day moving averages trading sideways but not declining to the 200-day moving average.

IXF – Nasdaq 100 Financial

The Nasdaq Financial-100 is a stock market index operated by Nasdaq consisting of companies that are listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange, that are in the financial services industry, including banking, insurance, mortgages and securities trading.

This week the Nasdaq Financials climbed by 0.81% to end the week, essentially remaining flat. This week the financials still ended the week just above the 50-day average, but slightly below the 20-day moving average.

IWM – iShares Russell 2000 ETF

The Russell 2000 Index is a small-cap U.S. stock market index that makes up the smallest 2,000 stocks in the Russell 3000 Index. The index is a widely quoted measure of the overall performance of small-cap to mid-cap company shares. It is commonly considered an indicator of the U.S. economy due to its focus on small-cap companies in the U.S. market.

The Russell 2000 rose 2.14% this week (avoiding a third weekly decline in a row), but remained below the 20-day and 50-day moving averages. The Russell 2000 ended Friday slightly higher and is a sideways pattern at this point in time.

Unlike the Nasdaq bullish run, the Russell 2000 has traded within a range since April 2022. Key previous resistance points to keep an eye on are around around the 211 and 227 and 242 marks. A lot of the money in the market has been driving the large caps higher over the years leaving the Russell 2000 to underperform. In the bigger picture the Russell 2000 remains within the trading range established back in April 2022.

XIU – iShares S&P/TSX 60 Index ETF

XIU is a liquid ETF that tracks the TSX 60 Index, which consists of the top 60 companies in Canada and has a large-cap focus.

The Canadian market rose 0.69% this week (following a decline of 0.69% last week) under average trading volume. The Canadian stock market currently sits just above the 20-day moving average to close the week, above the 50-day moving average and well above the 200-day moving average. Similar to the US market the Canadian market has pulled back and looks to be taking a slide pause while trading sideways.

Now if we look at a slightly longer time horizon, we can see that the TSX has been trading sideways since April 2022 and continues to trade in the range.

GLD – SPDR Gold Shares ETF

GLD is a relatively cost efficient and secure way to access the gold market. SPDR Gold Shares is the largest physically backed gold exchange traded fund in the world.

Gold continued its run up moving up slightly by 0.21% this week, essentially flat. Gold has been in an overall up trend since Nov 2018. More recently gold’s run has seen a slight pull back from its parabolic run. Gold moved sideways this week, however remains above the 20-day moving average, well above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages.

USO – United States Oil Fund ETF

USO’s investment objective is for the daily changes, in percentage terms, of its shares’ net asset value (NAV) to reflect the daily changes, in percentage terms, of the spot price of light sweet crude oil delivered to Cushing, Oklahoma, as measured by the daily changes in the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract. Specifically, USO seeks for the average daily percentage change in USO’s net asset value, for any period of 30 successive valuation days, to be within plus/minus 10% of the average daily percentage change in the price of the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract over the same period.

This week oil rose by 3.26% falling slightly below the 20-day moving average, but remains above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. This week USO respected the support line established in February 2024. Overall Oil is still in an up trend and it will be good to see oil move past the $82 price level.

GBTC – Grayscale Bitcoin Trust

Bitcoin is a digital asset that is created and transmitted through the operations of the peer-to-peer Bitcoin Network, a decentralized network of computers that operates on cryptographic protocols. The Bitcoin Network allows people to exchange tokens of value, Bitcoins, which are recorded on a public transaction ledger known as a Blockchain.

The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust is one of the first securities solely and passively invested in Bitcoin (“BTC”) that enables investors to gain exposure to BTC in the form of a security while avoiding the challenges of buying, storing, and safekeeping BTC, directly.

This week BTC declined by 6.3% (after falling 2.96% the week prior) under medium trading volume after a significant rise starting in Oct 2023. It looks like BTC is continuing its reversal pattern falling below the 20-day and 50-day moving averages.

TLT – iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF

The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF seeks to track the investment results of an index composed of U.S. Treasury bonds with remaining maturities greater than twenty years. The TLT portfolio’s effective duration is 16.5 years. So, if interest rates fall by 1.0%, TLT’s price could rise by 16.5%.

This week TLT continued its overall down trend declining by 0.5%, still following the downward trend which has resumed as of Jan 2024. The continued downward movement continues to reflect the current higher for longer interest rate environment. This week TLT’s decline continued to follow the accelerated downward trend.

Swing Trading Market Outlook